Comments on: Deal or No Deal: Gambling With Math! http://www.mydollarplan.com/deal-or-no-deal-gambling-with-math/ because money doesn't grow on trees Thu, 09 Feb 2012 14:28:55 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.2.1 By: MK http://www.mydollarplan.com/deal-or-no-deal-gambling-with-math/#comment-898 MK Tue, 12 Feb 2008 10:53:03 +0000 http://www.mydollarplan.com/deal-or-no-deal-gambling-with-math/#comment-898 Except Oprah would probably want to give away the money to someone, so her threshold would be lowered. Except Oprah would probably want to give away the money to someone, so her threshold would be lowered.

]]> By: LC http://www.mydollarplan.com/deal-or-no-deal-gambling-with-math/#comment-786 LC Tue, 05 Feb 2008 21:52:09 +0000 http://www.mydollarplan.com/deal-or-no-deal-gambling-with-math/#comment-786 I've always wanted to write down all the cases remaining as well as the banks offers to determine the formula - I'm such a nerd. What I think is most ridiculous is that people are like "I had a dream that the $1M is in case 6, so I know it is in here" rather than realizing that it is all about probability. I’ve always wanted to write down all the cases remaining as well as the banks offers to determine the formula – I’m such a nerd.

What I think is most ridiculous is that people are like “I had a dream that the $1M is in case 6, so I know it is in here” rather than realizing that it is all about probability.

]]> By: Smart Spending http://www.mydollarplan.com/deal-or-no-deal-gambling-with-math/#comment-471 Smart Spending Wed, 16 Jan 2008 16:40:16 +0000 http://www.mydollarplan.com/deal-or-no-deal-gambling-with-math/#comment-471 <strong>A blogger's guide to playing 'Deal or No Deal'...</strong> Madison at My Dollar Plan is so disgusted with the illogical way contestants play "Deal or No Deal" that she's thinking about not watching it anymore. It's all mathematics, people, specifically a concept called "expected value," she says. Madison...

A blogger’s guide to playing ‘Deal or No Deal’…

Madison at My Dollar Plan is so disgusted with the illogical way contestants play “Deal or No Deal” that she’s thinking about not watching it anymore. It’s all mathematics, people, specifically a concept called “expected value,” she says. Madison…

]]> By: Madison http://www.mydollarplan.com/deal-or-no-deal-gambling-with-math/#comment-464 Madison Wed, 16 Jan 2008 04:46:23 +0000 http://www.mydollarplan.com/deal-or-no-deal-gambling-with-math/#comment-464 @ Rocket: Nope, not poker. Just blackjack at the tables (card counting of course)! @ Rocket: Nope, not poker. Just blackjack at the tables (card counting of course)!

]]> By: David http://www.mydollarplan.com/deal-or-no-deal-gambling-with-math/#comment-463 David Wed, 16 Jan 2008 04:36:58 +0000 http://www.mydollarplan.com/deal-or-no-deal-gambling-with-math/#comment-463 I gotta say that I would probably take any decent offer as soon as I could, as even just a few grand would make a difference in my life. At least more than winning nothing would! Great post, love the analysis. I gotta say that I would probably take any decent offer as soon as I could, as even just a few grand would make a difference in my life. At least more than winning nothing would! Great post, love the analysis.

]]> By: Patrick http://www.mydollarplan.com/deal-or-no-deal-gambling-with-math/#comment-462 Patrick Wed, 16 Jan 2008 03:38:34 +0000 http://www.mydollarplan.com/deal-or-no-deal-gambling-with-math/#comment-462 I love to play poker and other card games, but those rely on skill as much as luck. With something like this, I am of the opinion that a bird in hand is better than two in the bush. I love to play poker and other card games, but those rely on skill as much as luck. With something like this, I am of the opinion that a bird in hand is better than two in the bush.

]]> By: carnival of personal finance: photo quiz edition : plonkee money http://www.mydollarplan.com/deal-or-no-deal-gambling-with-math/#comment-449 carnival of personal finance: photo quiz edition : plonkee money Mon, 14 Jan 2008 10:06:49 +0000 http://www.mydollarplan.com/deal-or-no-deal-gambling-with-math/#comment-449 [...] from My Dollar Plan presents Deal or No Deal: Gambling With Math! .Rational, and “Deal or No Deal” don’t seem to go together, as Madison shows. [great [...]

[...] from My Dollar Plan presents Deal or No Deal: Gambling With Math! .Rational, and “Deal or No Deal” don’t seem to go together, as Madison shows. [great [...]

]]> By: Early Retirement Extreme http://www.mydollarplan.com/deal-or-no-deal-gambling-with-math/#comment-430 Early Retirement Extreme Fri, 11 Jan 2008 02:33:32 +0000 http://www.mydollarplan.com/deal-or-no-deal-gambling-with-math/#comment-430 I bet one of the initial screening questions for wannabe contestants is: Do you play the lottery? BTW you'd have to fold in a utility function in the expectation integral as well. I bet one of the initial screening questions for wannabe contestants is: Do you play the lottery?

BTW you’d have to fold in a utility function in the expectation integral as well.

]]> By: Mrs. Micah http://www.mydollarplan.com/deal-or-no-deal-gambling-with-math/#comment-426 Mrs. Micah Fri, 11 Jan 2008 00:42:38 +0000 http://www.mydollarplan.com/deal-or-no-deal-gambling-with-math/#comment-426 I'm a very conservative sort of person with money...I definitely would go for the bank offer. I’m a very conservative sort of person with money…I definitely would go for the bank offer.

]]> By: plonkee http://www.mydollarplan.com/deal-or-no-deal-gambling-with-math/#comment-425 plonkee Thu, 10 Jan 2008 21:12:29 +0000 http://www.mydollarplan.com/deal-or-no-deal-gambling-with-math/#comment-425 This show is huge in the UK. I quite like predicting what the offers will be throughout the show, and also trying to guess whether they're going to take it or not. I think the behind the scenes set up where they are in a hotel together for days at a time, each hoping to get picked to go on by the producers contributes to the irrationality displayed. Which is fine, cos it's great tv. This show is huge in the UK. I quite like predicting what the offers will be throughout the show, and also trying to guess whether they’re going to take it or not.

I think the behind the scenes set up where they are in a hotel together for days at a time, each hoping to get picked to go on by the producers contributes to the irrationality displayed. Which is fine, cos it’s great tv.

]]> By: rocketc http://www.mydollarplan.com/deal-or-no-deal-gambling-with-math/#comment-424 rocketc Thu, 10 Jan 2008 20:57:47 +0000 http://www.mydollarplan.com/deal-or-no-deal-gambling-with-math/#comment-424 I am surprised that you gamble. Texas Hold'em? I would be a terrible Deal or No Deal contestant. I always assume that things are going to turn out well for me. I like to risk it all. Back to Texas Hold'em - I am terrible at that too because I bluff every hand or assume that I am going to hit "runner, runner". i don't gamble I am surprised that you gamble. Texas Hold’em?

I would be a terrible Deal or No Deal contestant. I always assume that things are going to turn out well for me. I like to risk it all.

Back to Texas Hold’em – I am terrible at that too because I bluff every hand or assume that I am going to hit “runner, runner”.

i don’t gamble

]]> By: Michael James http://www.mydollarplan.com/deal-or-no-deal-gambling-with-math/#comment-422 Michael James Thu, 10 Jan 2008 16:13:38 +0000 http://www.mydollarplan.com/deal-or-no-deal-gambling-with-math/#comment-422 Making the right choice in this game is a little more complicated than just calculating the average of the remaining values (the mathematical expectation). If the offer exceeds the expectation, then it is right to take it, but it is sometimes right to take a slightly low offer. If the two remaining amounts are a million and a penny, a poor person should probably take a $450,000 offer, but a rich person should probably take a chance on getting the million. For more on why this is the case, check out this <a href="http://michaeljamesmoney.blogspot.com/2007/11/utility-of-money.html" rel="nofollow">essay</a>. Making the right choice in this game is a little more complicated than just calculating the average of the remaining values (the mathematical expectation). If the offer exceeds the expectation, then it is right to take it, but it is sometimes right to take a slightly low offer. If the two remaining amounts are a million and a penny, a poor person should probably take a $450,000 offer, but a rich person should probably take a chance on getting the million. For more on why this is the case, check out this essay.

]]> By: Lily http://www.mydollarplan.com/deal-or-no-deal-gambling-with-math/#comment-421 Lily Thu, 10 Jan 2008 15:06:09 +0000 http://www.mydollarplan.com/deal-or-no-deal-gambling-with-math/#comment-421 I think you're making the unreasonable assumption that most of the contestants know enough about math or probability or game theory (you only need a basic knowledge of any one of those three subjects to "solve" the game) to apply it to the game. <br/> I don't even watch this show, because I know I'd be frustrated. When the show first started airing, my friends and I discussed the expected value calculation briefly and pretty much agreed that no contestant was going to do that and none of us were going to waste time watching the contestants not do that. I think you’re making the unreasonable assumption that most of the contestants know enough about math or probability or game theory (you only need a basic knowledge of any one of those three subjects to “solve” the game) to apply it to the game.

I don’t even watch this show, because I know I’d be frustrated. When the show first started airing, my friends and I discussed the expected value calculation briefly and pretty much agreed that no contestant was going to do that and none of us were going to waste time watching the contestants not do that.

]]> By: Steve http://www.mydollarplan.com/deal-or-no-deal-gambling-with-math/#comment-420 Steve Thu, 10 Jan 2008 14:59:20 +0000 http://www.mydollarplan.com/deal-or-no-deal-gambling-with-math/#comment-420 Nice blog. I share your anguish. My sister was consistently amazed when I would pretty accurately guess the bank's offer using the methods you described. It's pretty simple math. I bet if you asked that first contestant to write the show a check for $200k he would laugh in your face, even though that's essentially what he did. It's funny how people consider found money less valuable than that which is earned. Nice blog. I share your anguish. My sister was consistently amazed when I would pretty accurately guess the bank’s offer using the methods you described. It’s pretty simple math.

I bet if you asked that first contestant to write the show a check for $200k he would laugh in your face, even though that’s essentially what he did. It’s funny how people consider found money less valuable than that which is earned.

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